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Economic and Financial Policy Review

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VOLUME 3, NUMBER 2, 2004

AUTHORS:
Evan F. Koenig
Economic Research Assistant, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

TITLE:
Monetary Policy Prospects

FIGURE 1:  The Fed Has Cut Short-Term Interest Rates Aggressively Since 2000
FIGURE 2:  The Yield Curve Signals Highly Accommodative Policy
FIGURE 3:  The Real Funds Rate Signals Highly Accommodative Policy
FIGURE 4:  The Taylor Rule Explains Fed Policy Fairly Well
FIGURE 5:  Strength of the Recovery Determines How Quickly the Unemployment Rate Declines
FIGURE 6:  Inflation Prospects and the Strength of the Recovery
FIGURE 7:  Inflation Prospects and the NAIRU
FIGURE 8:  Policy Impact of the Recovery’s Strength Builds Over Time
FIGURE 9:  Strength of the Recovery Has a Powerful Policy Impact Even If Policymakers Are Slow to Catch On
FIGURE 10:  Perceived NAIRU Has a Powerful, Immediate Impact on Policy
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