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VOLUME 1, NUMBER 6, 2002

AUTHOR:
Evan F. Koenig
Vice President and Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

TITLE:
Using the Purchasing Managers’ Index to Assess the Economy’s Strength and the Likely Direction of Monetary Policy

FIGURE 1:  ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index
FIGURE 2:  PMI Captures Trends in Factory Output Growth
FIGURE 3: PMI Highly Correlated with Monetary Policy Decisions
FIGURE 4: Target Funds Rate (ff) Moves Toward Its Long-Run Level (ff*)
FIGURE 5: Predictions Track the Actual Funds Rate Target Fairly Well

 

 
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